Market Commentary: Q1 2026

AI, Software, and Private Markets: Dislocation, Risk, and Opportunity

Public software valuations reset sharply during the first quarter of 2026, with major indices declining about 25% from 12 month highs1 on investor concerns about agentic AI companies posing a serious—and, in some cases, potentially existential—threat to traditional software as a service (SaaS) business models.

The selloff was broad and often indiscriminate, with prices reflecting sector sentiment more than company specific fundamentals. Overall, we believe the broad public selloff to be an overreaction.

As with most periods of technological change, AI is creating both disruption and opportunity, with implications for near term market dynamics and private markets investors.

Private market portfolios typically hold a small share of NAV in public securities, limiting direct exposure to these moves. However, public comparables—particularly on a growth adjusted basis—inform private valuation frameworks, so lower public software multiples are likely to exert modest downward pressure on private market NAVs, especially for software heavy managers.

While AI may shift individual growth trajectories over time, software disruption tends to unfold gradually rather than abruptly. AI challengers backed by private capital will disrupt some incumbents, but replacing established, mission critical platforms that are deeply embedded in workflows and tightly integrated with other systems is difficult, costly, and risky. Industry specific vertical software appears less exposed, while certain horizontal, language heavy point solutions with limited integration may face greater competitive pressure.

Where invested in technology companies, our focus at Adams Street is on a narrow subset of software businesses with mission critical products, high switching costs, recurring or contracted revenue, strong free cash flow2 generation, and conservative leverage. Our underwriting process is rigorous, and AI related disruption risk is an explicit component of due diligence for software investments.

Periods of compressed public valuations can create opportunity, as public company management teams and boards become more receptive to take private transactions. Given the potential size of certain deals, Adams Street may be involved in such transactions, and in some cases may be invited to participate alongside lead sponsors. Liquidity-motivated sellers may also create opportunities in the secondary market for well-informed investors to purchase high-quality assets at attractive entry points.

In our view, most software companies face greater opportunities than risks from AI, and while near term public volatility may introduce some pressure on private NAVs, we expect this to be offset over time by value creation in AI native and AI enabled businesses and, ultimately, by a stabilization and recovery in public software multiples as companies continue to deliver solid operating performance.

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Endnotes

  1. Bain & Company, Why SaaS Stocks Have Dropped—and What It Signals for Software’s Next Chapter, February 2, 2026 https://www.bain.com/insights/why-saas-stocks-have-dropped-and-what-it-signals-for-softwares-next-chapter/; S&P Software & Services Select Industry Index https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-software-services-select-industry-index/#overview.
  2. Free cash flow generally means the cash a company generates from its operations after paying for capital expenditures needed to maintain or grow the business. It is often used as an indicator of a company’s financial flexibility and ability to fund growth, repay debt or return capital to investors.

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